Study shows Whyte may struggle based on previous heavyweight rematches
Thursday 25th March 2021 – Dillian Whyte may be the favourite to defeat Alexander Povetkin for the WBC interim heavyweight title on Saturday, but research from William Hill has revealed history is not on his side when it comes to gaining revenge in a heavyweight rematch.
Whyte and Povetkin will meet in the ring at Rumble on the Rock in Gibraltar this weekend, with the British fighter looking to avenge his knockout defeat to the Russian from August last year to remain on course for a WBC world title shot.
However, a study from William Hill analysing rematches involving every current heavyweight boxer in the top 15 WBA, WBC, WBO and IBF rankings has revealed that only 6% of first-time losers have gone on to seal revenge in the follow-up bout, with that being Anthony Joshua against Andy Ruiz Jr.
Some 34 heavyweight boxers were analysed with 17 fights leading to a rematch, with a mammoth 88% of original winners going on to claim back-to-back victories. Just 6% of the fights started with a draw before the rematch was settled with a victory – Tyson Fury’s eventual win over Deontay Wilder.
Of the 34 fighters analysed, Fury, Wilder and Derek Chisora have been involved in the most rematches with three each. Whyte will be fighting in his second after previously disposing of Chisora with back-to-back wins, while Povetkin has never previously been involved in a rematch.
If boxing fans are hoping for a trilogy fight between Whyte and Povetkin, they may be disappointed with just 6% of the fights heading for a third clash – Trevor Bryan’s trilogy of victories over Sandy Antonio Soto.
A William Hill spokesperson said: “If the first fight between Dillian Whyte and Alexander Povetkin is anything to go by, we’re all set for a thrilling second bout this weekend, with Whyte desperate to gain revenge over the Russian.
“However, Whyte may want to look away now, as if our research is anything to go by then the odds are well and truly stacked against him. Of the heavyweight rematches we analysed, a mega 88% of them saw the original winner claim another victory, while just 6% of them involved the loser avenging the first defeat.
“History looks to be on the side of Povetkin on Saturday, but it will be a fascinating watch to see if Whyte can rewrite the record books in Gibraltar.”